The ‘problem’ with Iran continues today with this announcement from Barack Obama regarding sanctions to be placed on Iran.
Iran has always insisted, with the blessing of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), that its nuclear enrichment programme is wholly civilian in nature.
In this TED talk from this time last year, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita gives a compelling argument for Iran’s future based on computer modelling. He suggests that, if left alone, Iran may well seek to increase its holdings of enriched uranium, but that it will not develop nuclear weapons. The analysis of Iran begins around 13 minutes.
He suggests also that, whether left alone or not, Iran will not seek nuclear weapons. So Iran’s ramping up of its UAV programme in response to tough talk from Israel, while useful for my dissertation, is only creating unnecessary tension in the Middle East.
It seems to me, that the world is trapped in a perpetuation of Cold War tensions. Now that the 90’s have ended, we’ve had our blowout, we need something else to be worried about.
Armitage Shanks, over at Full Force of the Wind, has a slightly different take on this. Although, his quote from LeMonde is revealing. The French seem to agree with me and de Mesquita. Iran should be left alone, because she doesn’t pose a threat.
I would take it a little further and say that the US should not impose sanctions, because, as Nicholas Kristof pointed out in 2003, Sanctions Don’t Work. He states that “sanctions … aren't a policy; they're a feel-good substitute for one.”
That’s all this is. The US is responding to Iranian ‘posturing’ with some ‘posturing’ of its own to reassure its public and the public of the world that it is interested. That it can do nothing about the situation seems irrelevant.
All of this could, I believe, lead to a mini-Cold War in the Middle East:- Iran scared
- Israel emboldened by aggressive US defence policies
- The post-national WEU sitting back feeling superior, without the necessary humility to simply allow the US and the Middle East to realise their own errors.
This intrigues me. Today I was contemplating this portion of Lao-tzu's 65th Verse of the Tao Te Ching:
– “When they think that they know the answers, people are difficult to guide. When they know that they don't know, people can find their own way.”
If Iran is left to find its own solution, everyone benefits.
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